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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to take a firm position regarding Ukraine. Following making threats of "serious repercussions" last August in case Putin continued obstructing truce negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted considerable sanctions on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously impacted Putin's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly drafted by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European participation, he has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Military Action

This initiative would essentially reward Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that same independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump persists to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, implying giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's territory will please the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a charred area of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to destroy it so it no longer serves as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in status the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding Russia with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a decade of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions severely weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that are a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, providing Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv in case he later choose to renew the war.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would make renewed fighting easier for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their current large number personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative imposes no similar constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's efforts to depict the nation's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's plan states: "Every Nazi doctrine and activities must be rejected and banned." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump places no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by allowing elections in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the plan makes Russia promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". But given that Putin has broken equivalent treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a truce and a restoration of seized land in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should anyone believe Russia on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the plan threatens a "decisive unified military response" if Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars include vague to troubling. The plan would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from positioning forces on the nation's land, thereby precluding the security presence, presumptively headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his reduced troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against additional Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of Western powers, like the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not