A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
